Take-home sales at the grocers increased by 2.3% over the four weeks to 3 November 2024 to reach £11.6 billion, making this the biggest sales month of the year so far according to our latest data.
The take-home sales rise coincided with a jump in the number of shopping trips made by households, hitting a four-year high at 480 million. October 2024 was the busiest month for the supermarkets since March 2020, when people were preparing for the first national lockdown. Trip numbers have been going up gradually for some time, but this steady march hasn’t reached pre-covid levels of shopping frequency just yet. The average for each household is slightly over four trips per week.
Early festive preparations drive sales boost
Halloween played a part in galvanising sales and there are signs that some consumers are looking further ahead in the calendar, starting their Christmas shopping early. Many of us got into the spooky spirit last month, as 3.2 million households bought at least one pumpkin. Confectionery spending also got a boost to £525 million in October as sales of chocolates and sweets both went up, climbing by 13% and 7% each.
What’s interesting this month is the number of households who are already stocking up the cupboards for the big day in December. Some people think Christmas ads hit our screens too soon but it’s clearly important for retailers to set out their stalls early. 648,000 shoppers have already bought a Christmas cake, while 14.4% of households picked up mince pies in October. With Black Friday on the horizon, the grocers will be hoping to capture a slice of the action there too. In the week up to 26 November last year, online and offline sales for typical Black Friday categories across all high street retailers were £1.6 billion higher than during an average week in 2023*.
Grocery price inflation was 2.3% this period, up slightly on September’s figure but still within typical levels. The rate has now been below 3.0% every month since the early summer. Promotional activity by the grocers is helping to keep prices down and supporting sales of branded goods in particular. Spending on deals has been going up consistently for the past 18 months and it now makes up 28.6% of all sales. Offers are helping to lift branded sales especially. The growth gap between brands and own-label is the biggest it’s been since February 2021, sitting at 4.9% and 2.7% apiece. We’ll be keeping a close eye on those numbers to see whether the gap continues to widen in the run up to Christmas.
British retailer performance update
Ocado topped the growth table, boosting its sales by 9.5% over the 12 weeks to 3 November 2024. With sales up by 7.4%, Lidl was the fastest growing retailer with a bricks and mortar presence for the 15th period in a row, continuing this run into a second year. It secured 326,000 additional shoppers this period, more than any other retailer, and saw particularly strong fresh produce sales growth at 22%.
The two largest supermarkets in Great Britain also outperformed the wider market. With sales up across all its store formats and online, Tesco’s sales rose by 4.6% taking it to 27.9% of the market, up 0.6 percentage points on last year. Spending through the tills at Sainsbury’s climbed 4.4%, making its overall share 15.5%. Sainsbury’s saw a rise in both shopper numbers and trips this period.
Asda’s hold of the market is now 12.5%. Morrison’s sales grew by 2.4%, outpacing the market average for the first time since June 2021. Its share of take-home sales remains at 8.6%. Aldi held its share of the market steady year on year at 10.4%.
Co-op and Waitrose’s shares sit at 5.7% and 4.6% respectively. Iceland now makes up 2.2% of the market, the same proportion as a year ago.
*Source: Kantar Worldpanel Plus physical and online weekly spend value for the appliances, beauty, consumer electronics, fashion, gifts, homeware, toiletries and toys categories across all high street retailers. The data compares the week ending 26 November 2023 with the average week in 2023.
