Remaining in EU the most popular outcome for UK public

Kantar research (10th – 15th October 2019) finds that:

• One in five people (20%) say they want to leave the EU with Boris Johnson’s proposed deal, compared to 6% of Britons who said the same of Theresa May’s deal in September 2019. 13% want Britain to leave the EU but remain in the Single Market / Customs Union (-1). One in five people say they ‘don’t know’ what scenario they favour the most (22%, -2 vs Sept 2019)
• Remaining in the EU/ Revoking Article 50 continues to be the most popular outcome for the public, with one in three saying this is their most favourable scenario (32%, nc)
• Leaving the European Union with ‘No Deal’ is the preferred outcome for 14% of Britons (-10 v Sept 2019)
• If a new referendum was held on the UK’s membership of the European Union, 38% of Britons say they would vote to Remain (+1 vs September 2019), 37% say they would vote to Leave (+3). 15% say they wouldn’t vote (-3) and and one in ten ‘don’t know’ (10%, nc).
• Four in ten Britons think it is ‘likely’ that the UK will leave the EU by the 31st October 2019 (42%, +12 vs Sept 2019), with a similar proportion thinking it is ‘unlikely’ (39%, -12). One in five people ‘don’t know’ (19%, nc)
• Almost half of Britons are in favour of any final deal or agreement reached by the government being put to a public referendum (47%, -6 vs Sept 2019). One in three Britons (34%, +5) say it shouldn’t and 19% say they ‘don’t know’ (+1)
• 26% (-11) of Leave voters and seven in ten of Remain voters (67%, -4) say they want any agreement to be put to a public vote
• Nearly four in ten Britons (38%, +7) Britons think that a No Deal Brexit would affect them negatively this year, with a further 35% (nc) thinking it will be neither positive or negative, and 15% (-5) believe it would affect them positively
• One in four Leave voters (25%, -8) believe the impact on them personally would be positive by the end of this year if the UK left without a deal on October 31st. Conversely, 59% (+3) of Remain voters believe the impact would be negative

Public voting intentions

• Conservative 39% (+1)
• Labour 25% (+1)
• Liberal Democrats 18% (-2)
• The Brexit Party 8% (+1)
• SNP 3% (-1), Green 3% (nc), The Independent Group for Change <1% (-1), Other 1% (nc), UKIP 1% (nc), Plaid Cymru 1% (nc)

Public opinion on the effects of Brexit and the negotiations

• 61% of Britons (-4 vs Sept 2019) rate the government’s handling of the Brexit negotiations as ‘poor’ and one in four (24%, +6) rate their handling of the negotiations as ‘well’.
• When asked about the impact Brexit will have on jobs, NHS care, schools, living costs and peoples’ local area, over four in ten Britons (46%, +2 vs August 2019) believe that Brexit will have negative effects with no positive effects
• 21% (-2) believe Brexit will have positive effects with no negative effects

Public preparations

• When asked how likely are they to act ahead of the UK’s departure date from the EU, almost one in three people said they have already or are likely to reduce spending on leisure activities or eating out (31%, -1).
• Almost one in four people said they are likely to or have already stockpiled food or medicine (20%, -3).

Public priorities for UK’s exit from the European Union

According to Kantar’s October Brexit Barometer, the British public’s priorities for the UK’s exit agreement are:

• More than seven in ten say they want the UK to continue collaborating with the EU on science, research and technology initiatives (70%, -2) and on security and policing (71%, -3)
• 63% of the public want British companies to have tariff-free access to the EU markets (+1) while 53% want European companies to have the same tariff-free access to UK markets, including services (-2)
• 62% of Britons say they want (+2) the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland to remain ‘soft’ without any passport control.
• 56% (-3) want the UK to draw up its own rules and regulations, even if they clash with EU rules and regulations and for there to be no further contributions to the EU budget (56%, -2)
• Over half (54%, -4) of the public want unrestricted rights for UK citizens to live in the EU. Whereas 42% (-1) of Britons want to deny the same unrestricted right for EU citizens to live in the UK
• More than half (52%, -2) want the UK to be part of a customs union with the EU to ensure no checks on goods at UK/EU borders, including with Ireland